11 January 2019
Sunday sees the final of the men’s tournament at Wimbledon, and what a match Novak Djokovic went through with Rafal Nadal to give himself the chance to win his fourth Wimbledon crown.
After being delayed on Friday evening due to curfew time limits, both players came out on Saturday to finish off the match and what a treat they served up for the lucky patrons who already had a ticket for the ladies final (Angelique Kerber winning 6-3, 6-3)
After a titanic struggle it was Djokovic who prevailed in a mammoth last set which finally went the way of the Croatian 10 – 8. It will long be remembered as one of the greatest semi finals to have taken place at the All England Club.
As an aside it also sets up a possible unique sporting double for this part of the world with Serbian Djokovic’s neighbour’s bidding to win the World Cup against France.
But what about the opponent laying in wait for Djokovic?
Kevin Anderson will definitely be up for this game and has also had a little more time to recover after his own immense semi final against John Isner. Both men now go into this final as having played in the two longest semi finals in Wimbledon history, an amazing statistic.
South African Anderson and John Isner served up (no pun intended) an amazing game of serve and volley tennis. Both men know for their big serving went head to head, toe to toe like two gladiators inside the Colosseum. For the people watching it was amazing theatre, for the two players it was a match they can both be proud to say they were a part of.
When it was all done and dusted, Anderson removed his cap, and shared an embrace with the heart broken Isner, it was a moment in sport that all of the crowd realised what sport is really about……..WINNING.
But winning whilst playing with the heart of a lion and then having the respect to acknowledge and appreciate that your opponent has just shared in the making of one of the all time greatest sporting battles.
John Isner may have been on the losing side this time, but hopefully later he will look back at this and realise what he achieved both himself and for the sport of tennis.
2018 Wimbledon Men’s Final – The Statistics
In his semi final with Rafal Nadal, Djokovic served an amazing 23 aces compared to the Spaniards 9 and this most definitely had a huge effect on the final result. When we look at his first serve numbers we see that he had a success ratio of 76% (96 from 125)
In the other semi final Kevin Anderson, the big hitting South African served up 49 aces and was even beaten by his match partner Isner who served over fifty aces.
Anderson was even better than Djokovic on his first serve numbers with a success rate of 84% (166 from 198)
Now of course the numbers above cannot be taken at face value as the number of games in each match was very different, don’t forget Anderson and Isner played out a 50 game final set (makes you exhausted just reading that number)
Djokovic had an average of 0.77 aces per game served
Anderson had an average of 0.98 aces per game served
That is actually a vast difference and it says a lot for Anderson’s stamina that he could keep serving big right through that final set.
If we look at the success of both players on their second serves we see another interesting statistic.
Djokovic was successful in 24 out of 51 second serves, a success ratio of 47%. In contrast Anderson was successful in 47 out of 80 second serves, a success ratio of 59%.
Once again these are big differences and may play an important role in the destination of this years men’s singles title.
2018 Wimbledon Mens Final – Betting Tips and Analysis
When we look at those stats above it just does not make a lot of sense that Novak Djokovic is quoted as a 1/5 favorite to beat Kevin Anderson who is as big as 9/2 with some bookmakers. At the odds the value lies in backing Anderson, but lets look at some of the other markets.
Djokovic may well be favorite and may win the match, but there are some bets based on statistics which could be under the radar.
First Service Break
In their respective semi finals Djokovic posted a 36% win ratio on points won when receiving whereas Anderson had a 29% ratio. We should however take into account that Anderson was up against a much tougher opponent serving wise and at 9/4 he looks good value to be the first to break serve.
Highest First Serve Percentage
According to the stats above Anderson should be the favorite in this market but the bookmakers look to have got this one wrong. You can only bet with Skybet on this market. They have Djokovic at 1/5 but Anderson looks a huge price based at 100/30.
Aces Handicap Betting
Kevin Anderson is a heavy favorite in the “Most Aces Served” market at 1/8 but in the handicap betting Skybet have both players priced up at 5/6. This may well offer an opportunity to side with Djokovic. Anderson’s average was 27% better than Djokovic if we look at the semi finals but with the Serbian receiving a 10.5 start (+ 10.5) the value looks to be Djokovic here and is a way of backing the Serb at a more interesting price.
2018 Wimbledon Mens Final – Final Conclusions
We are sure to see both men going for it and this could be a final to remember for a long time to come. Fatigue could well play a part in the latter stages of the match but it looks sure to be a close event. Enjoy the game.