How to Access Winning Streaks
22 May 2019
Winning streaks in sports betting can be great and extremely profitable but they can also be hard to understand and some people will struggle to know what to do when in the midst of one.
Here, we will give you a few tips on what to do and what not to do when you are on a hot streak in betting.
How to Understand Winning Streaks
Winning streaks happen. The same way that sports teams may win several matches in a row, or a football player may hit a purple patch and score in several games in a row, we may go on a streak of several winning bets in a row.
To show you how likely a streak is, lets use a simple coin toss. There is a 50% chance of the coin landing on heads and a 50% chance it lands on tails. If we toss a coin fifty times, you would expect twenty-five heads and twenty-five tails.
In fact, in our experiment, the coin landed:
This was twenty-six tails and twenty-four heads, so almost 50/50. But with regards streaks, the most consecutive tails was four whilst the most consecutive heads was seven. Lets change the “T” and “H” for “W” and “L”, to make it look like a sequence of bet outcomes.
We can see from this that you may have won more bets than you lost, but the longest winning streak was just four. The longest losing streak was seven. This tells us to never take a winning streak for granted.
It doesn’t matter if you’ve just had your sixth winning bet in a row come up, you’ve made a tidy profit from your last few bets, you feel on top of the world, and you’re already planning your next bet with the frame of mind that you are unbeatable.
You need to take a step back and understand something.
• Winning streaks do not last forever. Your luck will run out or a dead cert favourite will get beat. A coin cannot land on the same side every toss. You will eventually lose.
Once you understand that, you can prevent yourself becoming over-confident and can continue betting in the same way you did before.
What to do When on a Winning Streak
In order to prevent over-confidence and/or recklessness setting in, you need to maintain a business-like approach to sports betting and take heed of our tips to better control yourself during a winning streak.
Do not Raise your Stake
If you are using a proper bankroll management system, staking a certain percentage of your overall total for every bet, your stake may automatically go up. But, always stick to the same percentage and never think that because you are on a hot streak you can take advantage by betting 10% instead of 3%.
If that bet is the bet where your winning streak comes to an end, the chances are that you have blown all the profit you made during the streak on one reckless bet.
Stay within your limitations, always adhere to the rules of proper money management, and enjoy making whatever profit you can.
A key point to take on board is to remain analytical when betting. Don’t start thinking that because you’re on a lucky winning streak you can bet on anything and it will come in.
Make sure you study statistics, measure the risk and reward, and only bet if you feel the selection as a high chance of making you a profit. Don’t start betting on 33/1 outsiders in a horse race because you think you’re unbeatable.
Calculate When Streak Will End
It is important to understand your streak will come to an end, but also to know when you have passed the time it should already have ended.
We always recommend keeping a betting journal, with a list of all winning and losing bets including odds etc. Well, if you do this it will be simple to work out how long your streak should last for.
By recording the prices of all your winning selections, you will be able to work out an average price. You can then look at the percentage of probability this price represents.
For example, lets say the average price for all of your winners was 4/9 (1.44 decimal). This price represents an implied probability of 69.2%. So, you should win roughly 69 of 100 bets, or 6.9 bets for every 10.
If you have already won six bets in a row, probability tells us there’s a chance you may win one more bet in your next four. It could be the seventh to continue your streak. But, what that also tells us is you should expect to lose sooner rather than later.
Remain Calm When Streak Ends
Perhaps the single most important thing to do when on a winning streak is to remain calm and level-headed when it eventually comes to an end. You may be slightly annoyed that you didn’t pick your eighth winner in a row, but you should be happy you had the seven before instead of dwelling on the one you lost.
Nobody, even the top professional sports bettors, can win every single bet they place. There are far too many variables for that to be the case.
When you lose, you must dust yourself off and continue betting in a sensible, business-like manner with an analytical and statistical approach.
Continue studying stats, form, head to head, etc. and stick to your bankroll management system. This way, you ensure that your potential of long term profit remains the same.
You also need to understand that, there’s just as much chance of a losing streak as there is a winning one.