26 June 2019
Football can be extremely unpredictable, with surprise results, top teams dropping points against lower opposition, and far too many variables which turn what looks a dead cert into an uncertainty.
There is an increasing number of punters who look to take advantage of these variables by betting using the Double Chance market.
What is Double Chance?
In football, or other team sports such as rugby, there are three possible outcomes in the match result market. These are:
• Home Win
• Away Win
As mentioned, it can be difficult to predict a result so a double chance bet may be the way forward. This is especially the case in a match where the clear favourite is resting players or has injuries/suspensions to contend with. The underdog has more chance of picking up at least a draw in these circumstances. It can also work well when a higher placed team are playing away and you believe they will not lose but may struggle to get the victory.
A double chance bet increases your chance of placing a winning bet as it enables you to back two of the three possible outcomes in a single bet, albeit at shorter odds than in the match result market.
The possible bets in the double chance market are:
• Home Win or Draw
• Away Win or Draw
• Home Win or Away Win
If you back Home Win and Draw, your bet will be successful unless the away team win. Backing Away Win or Draw will give you a winning bet unless the home team wins. And if you wager on Home Win or Away Win, you will win as long as the match doesn’t end in a draw.
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Advantages of Double Chance
There are obvious advantages to using this market.
• More chance of a winning bet due to backing two out of the three possible outcomes. Your chances go from 33.3% to 66.6%.
• Chance of finding more value by backing the underdog, especially when they are playing a team with forced team changes or with their eye on more important upcoming games.
• Able to back higher placed teams playing away against teams with a decent home record. You may fancy the bigger team but are wary of the home team securing a draw.
Obviously, there are a couple of disadvantages to this market as well. The odds will be shorter in this market than they are in the match result market. So, backing a clear favourite to win or draw will not provide you with much profit potential.
The double chance market is really for those who like to back the underdog when they are confident of them at least getting a draw from the match. It also works well in tight matches between two evenly matched teams at decent odds.
Double Chance vs Two Separate Bets
Some people may insist it would be more profitable to just split their total stake money in half and back two separate outcomes instead of using the double chance market.
Lets give you an example to disprove those claims, with the following odds.
Match Result odds:
• Home Team 1.53
• Draw 4.00
• Away Team 6.00
Double Chance odds:
• Home/Draw 1.14
• Away/Draw 2.60
• Home/Away 1.25
So, if you staked 100 on any of the double chance outcomes your winnings would be:
• Home/Draw 114
• Away/Draw 260
• Home/Away 125
This is a profit of 14 if backing home/draw, 160 if backing away/draw or 25 if backing home/away.
If you split your stake into two bets of 50, you would make a total profit loss of -24.50 if the home team were successful, +100 if the game finished in a draw, and +200 if the away team won the match.
As we have mentioned already that the double chance market is mainly for those who like to back the underdog, the likely double chance bet placed would have been away/draw. If this was the case, the only way the punter makes a bigger profit placing two separate bets is if the away team were victorious.
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