Effective Research and Analysis – Guide for Beginners
19 July 2019
In sports betting there are many betting terms which are not easy to understand for a person who has never bet before.
It’s very complex and almost impossible for a bettor who has just discovered betting/online betting not to encounter difficulties.
To make it easier, we have written a guide that will explain betting terms and make them more understandable for the less experienced bettor.
In this article we will explain what effective research and analysis is and how it works, so new bettors can get the most from it when betting.
What is Effective Research and Analysis?
Betting on sports is an easy process, regardless of your level of expertise or experience. You create an account online or head to an actual bookmakers, choose your selection, pay your stake money and place a bet. Simple as that.
What isn’t so simple is winning and being successful at sports betting.
In order to do that you have to put effective research and analysis into place. Which basically means you must find out everything you can about particular sports, teams, players, and anything else that will increase your chances of making a profit from sports betting. You then must analyse all the information you have gained in order to find what can and can’t help you with regards betting.
Research and analysis is done in the lead up to an event you may be interested in placing a bet on. To make it effective you must study all available information, such as recent form figures, injuries/suspensions in team sports, and even how the weather may impact the event in question.
Why is Effective Research and Analysis Important in Sports Betting?
There is no point betting on a whim using only the sports knowledge you have in your brain. Even if you believe you know a lot about a certain sport or team, it may still not be enough to place a winning bet and make a decent profit.
In order for us to make informed and improved betting choices, we must arm ourselves with as much information as we can. You decrease your chances of profit if you do not gain enough information through effective research and analysis. It will effectively mean you are betting blind and chances are you are wasting your money.
Lets use a brief example to show you how effective research and analysis works.
A Premier League football match is taking place on a Sunday lunchtime with a team in or around the top six of the table playing away against a team battling at the lower end towards the relegation zone. Most casual punters would immediately opt for the higher placed team to win.
But, if you want to be successful and make money from sports betting you must turn off your emotions or what you think you may know because only an analytical approach can give you an edge over the bookmakers.
In order to make the most informed betting decisions for this match, you must look at:
• Recent results
• Team news
• Fixture lists
• Head to Head records
• Home and Away form figures
• Other key information, such as weather conditions, referee officiating the match, and day/time of the match
All of this information is vital.
Looking at recent results will show you which of the teams has the better form, which players are playing well or poorly, and also how the team performs depending on the quality of opposition. Some top teams drop points against lower opposition due to lack of motivation, over-confidence, and having their eyes on bigger prizes.
Talking about having eyes on bigger prizes, this is why we must look at fixture lists and team news.
If the bigger team had played a key European tie on the Wednesday before this match and had a rearranged fixture against a team one place above them in the league the Wednesday after, they may look to rest key players who may be fatigued. This, along with injuries and suspensions could give the smaller team a bigger chance of earning a positive result.
Studying home and away form is important too because some teams have much better form at home than they do away, or vice versa. A match may be between two teams several places apart in the league table but the higher placed team may have a horrendous away record whilst the lower team is solid at home.
HOW TO CHOOSE THE BEST ONLINE BOOKMAKER?
Head to Head records not only give us a better chance of picking a winner but can also help us to find decent bets in alternative markets. Look at previous fixtures between the two teams, note down how many goals were scored, percentage of matches where both teams scored, number of bookings in each match etc. Stick to matches within the last few years to give you a better chance of finding winning bets.
Other information is also vital. Teams may have a poor record in Sunday lunch time kick offs. Teams who like to play a slick passing style may come unstuck in heavy rain and wind against a team who likes to play a route one game.
How Does Effective Research and Analysis Help to Increase Profit?
Well, this is pretty self explanatory really. If effective research and analysis provides us with more information to make improved betting decisions, it increases our chances of making a profit.
But another reason effective research and analysis can help increase profit is by helping us to find value bets in the market.
A value bet is where we believe an outcome is more likely than the implied probability given to this outcome by the bookmakers.
For example, a team may be priced up to win a match with an implied probability of 25%. After carrying out effective research and analysis, studying all the vital information we need, we have concluded that this team in fact has more like a 30% chance of winning.
Therefore, we are finding value because the odds given by the bookmaker are higher than what we believe them to be. If this team is successful, it increases the size of the profit we think we should have won.
Types of Effective Research and Analysis
Unfortunately, there isn’t any right way to carry out research and analysis. It can be effective as long as you do it, regardless of how you gained the information. You can find useful information on sports statistics websites, other media such as sport TV shows or newspapers, social media, and sporting blogs. It is up to you which of these you use, although stats websites are extremely useful.
We do, however, have a few tips on how to get the most out of your research.
1. Allow Plenty of Time – You must give yourself plenty of time in order to gain the most information you can relevant to your chosen sport or event. You cannot just click on one website, take a couple of notes and expect to know everything. Giving yourself plenty of time will enable you to search thoroughly through statistics and other vital information.
2. Plan your Research – It will serve you well if you plan your research by pre-deciding which information you want to gain. Make a list of everything you feel is vital to improve your betting decisions and tick them off when you have gained enough knowledge for it to be helpful.
3. Get and Unbiased View – Looking at team specific blogs, websites, or social media can give a very one-sided view and this information will not be helpful with regards your betting. Fans on a team specific website may dislike a player, but he may have a fantastic goal scoring record against a specific team. Look at unbiased sites, finding factual information that can be backed up by statistics.
4. Look at the Bigger Picture – While statistical information is vital, we need to look deeper into this information in order for it to be relevant for us. A football team may have won their last five matches and are playing a team who have lost their last three, but the team on a winning streak may have played much lesser opposition or been lucky to win thanks to things such as poor officiating, players being sent off, or penalties being awarded. Always look at the bigger picture before deciding if information is useful or not.
5. Use Reputable Sources – Always make sure the sources you are gaining information from are reputable and only print unbiased and factual information. A less popular or unknown site may not be as well run as a bigger and more reputable site, which can lead to statistical errors and incorrect information which claims to be fact.
As you can see from our guide, effective research and analysis can enable us to make better betting decisions, remain analytical, and increase our chances of making a profit.
But, keeping a record of your own betting can also be a key thing. If you maintain a detailed betting record you will see your wins, losses, and which selections give you the biggest profit. Add that to effective research and analysis and you may increase your chances of winning even more.
CRITERIA WE USE TO CHOOSE THE BEST BOOKMAKERS
- Odds quality
- Market coverage and selection of bets
- Betting limits on that sport
- Live streaming
- Sport specific bonuses and promotions
INFORMATION WE LOOK AT FOR ALL BOOKMAKERS
- Website quality and usability
- How easy is to deposit and withdraw funds?
- How good the customer service is
- Can you trust this bookmaker?