Updated: March 2019

Analyzing the odds of Spain winning to FIFA U21 Finals

2 January 2019

There is such a radiant blaze about the Spanish U21 team at the FIFA U21 tournament at the moment. Boasting the audacious likes of Saul Niguez, Hector Bellerin, Marco Asensio, there is no doubt that the Spanish side tout one of the best technically sophisticated armies among the teams participating in the tournament.

The Spanish U21 has been ultimately impressive. They started the tournament with such a radiant blaze that has blossomed into a furnace across the tournament leaving ashes of teams they have met along the way. The latest team to be incinerated were the promising Italian U21 side disposed courtesy of the discourteous talents of Saul Niguez who fired three uncaringly past the enigmatic Donnaruma.


The technical poise of the team makes them very much less “humanitarian”. And yes they have taken no prisoners so far, winning all their matches en route to the finals. The quality in the team as earlier pointed out has been more than a mouthful for oppositions with the Macedonians having too much stuffed down their throats eventually guzzling in 5-0. Spain blazed past the Italian side in the semi finals. Although Italy were a man down, the Spaniards had been ferocious from the start and were only deserved winners when the referee blasted the last air into his whistle by the end of the game.

While the Spain U21 vs Italy U21 match didn’t have much of a competitive fragrance as the scintillating aroma of good Spanish soccer doused the contest, the other semifinal was much nervier. Germany had to scrap it out with England escaping by a berth thinner than whiskers. The tightly contested match saw Germany edging out a combatant English side on penalties. If FIFA would have allowed it, the final side playing against Spain would have five English players and the remaining six German. That was the length to which the match was equally matched.

Yet it is customary for Germany to be favorites at every competition. We all know Germany has a strong fetish for finals and are not known to be polite enough to accept second place in soccer competitions. This makes the final really delicious and savory. From history and soccer superstition, we expect the traditional winners Germany to snatch the trophy violently from the shut jaws of the Spanish side. But when we step logically outside conventions into the light of reason carefully examining the precise facts that this competition have presented so far, we can’t say Germany would readily win the finals- neither are they even favorites in the first place.

They have been beaten by the Italian side that eventually succumbed to Spain. This counts loudly against the German side. Although finals come with their peculiar spirits and motivation, if you look at the tactical disparity between two sides (as can be seen from how Italy outmuscled Germany only to eventually slide down the drowning shadows of the Spanish side), you would be tempted to give Spain the trophy without the two sides playing the finals. Therefore, it is fair and practical to say Spain are favorites to win this tournament. Considering all elements of surprise either, Spain’s odds could come at 1.45 while that of Germany would be at 1.82!